The Planning Process
Planning progresses in stages: the first stage is to identify those factors and the relationship between them that determine the economic or social feasibility of the Project. For example:
- passenger demand forecasts and the development over time;
- direct costs for the permanent works like tunnels, stations, the tracks, the signaling and other systems and the rolling stock
- indirect costs like costs for land acquisition and financing costs
- operation and maintenance costs;
- fare prices and policies, and
- the time schedule for construction and start of commercial operations.
Planning is also an iterative process: if you adjust the price for a trip on the commuter train, it will change the traffic demand forecast. This in turn will change the need for buying new rolling stock, which in turn will change the investment costs, which will affect the overall feasibility of the Project.
Through this iterative planning process the feasibility of the Project has been demonstrated several times since the first study was made in 1985. Feasibility was re-confirmed in the SAPROF study performed as part of the JBIC loan-appraisal in 1999. The latest studies, based on updated figures from 2002 and 2003, again confirm that the Project is economically feasible as well as being socially and environmentally desirable. However, the planning process does not stop. The figures fed into the planning process are based on the best available information. These figures are updated whenever more recent experience provides more relevant or reliable information.