In the updated model used to predict the passenger demand on the Marmaray Project, Istanbul is divided into 211 different zones based on the smallest administrative zone available. The model therefore gives quite reliable and nuanced forecast of the traffic developments.
Passenger Demand and Planning
The basis for all major infrastructure projects will always be a study of the expected demand - "How many passengers can be expected, from where to where, and when during the day will people use the commuter train system?" The Marmaray Project is also based on such studies. The first systematic studies were performed in 1985 and the studies have been updated regularly ever since.
The latest traffic forecasts of the Marmaray Project have been made by using a conventional transport model. The model was initially calibrated with the data collected in 1996 as a part of the Istanbul Transport Master Plan (IUAP) that was prepared by Istanbul Technical University (ITU) between 1995 and 1998.
The model has been revised and the validity of the model results have been checked by using data collected as recently as 2002 and 2003.
The model divides the city into 211 zones, and the zones are based on the smallest administrative district available - the "mahalle". The model also uses base data such as population, employment and the number of students in each zone. All other public and private transport systems, including the highway systems, have been evaluated and form another important part of the "backbone" of the model. The future land-use pattern, the number of trips per person per day, the type of each trip and the trip matrix (from which zone to which zone) and the trip-generating factors are other important aspects that have been evaluated and used in the model.
Once these factors and many others have been established and the model calibrated, a number of different scenarios - "what happens if" - can be developed, and as a result of all these exercises, the most likely traffic demand can be forecast.
Some key results are given below:
The total number of trips per day in year 2015 is estimated to approximately 1,500,000 passengers and in year 2025 this figure will have increased to some 1,700,000 passengers.
The maximum number of passengers per hour per direction using the system will in 2015 be some 65,000 and in 2025 this figure will have increased to some 75,000 passengers.
The total number of saved hours for all passengers per year will in 2009 be approximately 13 million hours, in year 2015 approximately 25 million hours and in 2025 approximately 36 million hours.